Pumped hydro and batteries can help with shorter-term balancing, for hours or at most days. And demand-side management DSM could delay the peaks for a while. We may also be able to import green power to meet local lulls — balanced by exports at other times, when we have a surplus.
Will all that suffice? The current plan is to switch most heating and transport over to electricity — heat pumps and electric vehicles EVs. That has some issues: the power grid may not be up to it, as power demand would be pushed up at peak times, unless evening EV-charging was delayed. That does mean green gas plants must be there for occasional extra back-up but arguably it would not require 70 GW.
It is usually said that balancing costs will rise significantly as the variable renewable proportion increases. But, against that, some smart grid-balancing measures will reduce system costs by matching energy supply and demand more efficiently. It was suggested that these savings could more than offset the cost of upgrading the power system.
That does seem credible for some of the options. For example, introducing variable time-of-use energy tariff charges requires no capital outlay but could lead to reduced energy use and user costs and reduced system costs.
In a scenario with renewables much expanded, demand would not change indeed, hopefully in such a future, it might be reduced. But, while there would not be a need for more back-up power, there would be a need for more P2G conversion if the surpluses are to be used as hydrogen more widely, so that would push up the cost — although that has to be set against the value of the wider use of P2G energy.
Alternatively, some of the surplus could just be exported as power, earning valuable income. While continued reductions in UK electricity demand are likely in the short term, the CCC and others expect UK electricity demand to increase in the medium term, if climate goals are to be met.
This is because continued improvements in energy efficiency would be more than offset by increased demand from electric vehicles EVs and electric heat pumps.
In effect, the UK would be electrifying part of the energy demand it currently meets using fossil gas and oil. This allows for 2m heat pumps and 20TWh for EVs. Demand from road transport could eventually reach more than double this level, if the whole UK fleet switches to EVs. The figures in this article and analysis are based on UK electricity generation.
It includes generation at pumped hydro stations, even though these are net electricity users after accounting for what is needed to pump water to their uphill storage reservoirs. BEIS also publishes figures on the amount of electricity supplied to the UK grid after accounting for power used on site — for instance, to run nuclear plant cooling equipment or coal pulverisers.
This includes electricity imported to the UK from overseas via interconnectors. A 1GW link to Belgium is to open early this year. After accounting for imports, the amount of electricity supplied in the UK in is about the same as that seen in UK electricity demand has fallen significantly since , though the 47TWh reduction is slightly lower than the 65TWh fall in generation. This is because of increased imports.
A large number of new interconnectors are being developed and government projections suggest imported electricity could supply as much as a quarter of UK power by the mids. Projections from the CCC assume net imports will average out to zero across each year in future. Instead, interconnectors would help to balance supply and demand between countries over shorter timescales, from minutes through to seasons. The figures from BM Reports are for electricity supplied to the national transmission grid.
This includes many onshore windfarms, as well as industrial gas combined heat and power plants and those burning landfill gas, waste or sewage gas. Get a Daily or Weekly round-up of all the important articles and papers selected by Carbon Brief by email.
By entering your email address you agree for your data to be handled in accordance with our Privacy Policy. Simon Evans UK emissions Analysis: UK electricity generation in falls to lowest level since UK electricity generation , terawatt hours TWh per year blue line and what would have happened if per-capita generation had remained at levels dashed yellow line.
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